Growth Shop
Predictive Incrementality Engine
Diagnosis Complete
v2.4.1
Client
Veridia Skincare
Veridia Skincare
Kova Athletics
Bloomfield Home
Luxe & Thread
Halo Supplements
Drift Outdoor Co.
Maison Terre
Solace Sleep
Period
12-Month Lookback
12-Month Lookback
6-Month Lookback
3-Month Lookback
Platform-reported metrics vs. business reality — Veridia Skincare
BUILD:
Data Ingestion
All ad platforms + Shopify + GA4
Noise Removal
Dedup, promo correction, baseline
Channel Isolation
True contribution per source
Incrementality Model
What spend actually drove
Bank Reconciliation
Verified against Shopify revenue
Engine Outputs — What The Data Actually Shows
Wasted Ad Spend
$223,080
$18,590/mo avg · 38.2% of total budget
Opportunity Revenue
$310,080
Wasted spend × blended MER 1.39×— revenue left on the table
Allocation Efficiency
58/100
Budget-to-incrementality alignment · Below 70 = significant misallocation
Stability
44/100
Monthly efficiency consistency · ±15pts variance · High organic halo swing
Platform Reporting Inflation
1.82×
Platforms claim $1476K revenue · Engine verified $436K
Data Foundation — 12-Month Aggregate
Platform-Reported Spend
$584,000
Total Ad Spend
60%
32%
5%
Meta Ads$348,92060%
Google$185,64032%
TikTok$31,9805%
Other$17,4603%
Monthly Average$48,667
Top 2 Channel Concentration92%
Peak → Low Month$61.6K → $33.4K
Business Reality (Shopify)
$811,200
Verified revenue · 3,240 orders · $250 AOV
Contribution Margin34.2%
Profit After Ad Spend$-306,426
New Customer Rev.$406,640
Repeat Revenue$404,560
New:Repeat Ratio50:50
Organic Halo Effect
46%
avg. paid conversions carried by organic & owned demand
Range: 34% – 63% · High variability
Halo spikes during promotional periods when email, SMS, and organic content drive demand that paid channels then claim. Nov–Dec paid ROAS is significantly brand-carried— not a reliable baseline for budget decisions.
Channel-Level Breakdown
iROAS = incremental return on ad spend — revenue the engine verified this channel actually drove, per dollar spent. ROAS = what the platform reported.
Meta Ads40% wasted
Total Spend$348,920
Wasted Spend$138,240
Claimed Orders1,824
Engine Attributed1,048
iROAS
0.70×ROAS 1.31×
Google Ads24% wasted
Total Spend$185,640
Wasted Spend$44,554
Claimed Orders952
Engine Attributed620
iROAS
0.79×ROAS 1.28×
TikTok Ads58% wasted
Total Spend$31,980
Wasted Spend$18,548
Claimed Orders240
Engine Attributed98
iROAS
0.70×ROAS 1.88×
Other Paid31% wasted
Total Spend$17,460
Wasted Spend$5,413
Claimed Orders152
Engine Attributed102
iROAS
1.34×ROAS 2.24×
Channel Drill-Down
Meta Ads — Revenue Breakdown
Full bar = platform-claimed revenue · Base (colour) = engine-verified · Top (red) = unverifiable overclaim
Verified Revenue
Overclaim
Actual Spend
Optimal Spend
Diagnosis
Meta claimed 1.9× the revenue it actually drove. During BFCM (Nov–Dec), the gap exploded — Meta reported +38% revenue while engine-verified revenue dropped 22%. Email/SMS drove the majority of promo conversions; Meta took credit. $138K of your $349K Meta budget produced zero incremental new customers.
Google Ads — Revenue Breakdown
Base (colour) = engine-verified · Top (red) = unverifiable overclaim
Verified Revenue
Overclaim
Actual Spend
Optimal Spend
Diagnosis
Brand search is inflating Google's reported conversions. Users who would have converted organically are captured by branded terms — Google claims credit, but the incrementality is near zero. Strip brand search and Google's true waste rate is closer to 35%. Still the most efficient paid channel at 0.79× iROAS.
TikTok Ads — Revenue Breakdown
Base (colour) = engine-verified · Top (red) = unverifiable overclaim
Verified Revenue
Overclaim
Actual Spend
Optimal Spend
Diagnosis
TikTok overclaimed 2.7× verified revenue — the highest of any channel. View-through attribution is the primary culprit: users exposed to TikTok ads convert later via other channels, but TikTok claims credit. 58% of spend — $18.5K — drove zero incremental new customers. At current levels, this channel is a cost centre.
Other Paid — Revenue Breakdown
Base (colour) = engine-verified · Top (red) = unverifiable overclaim
Verified Revenue
Overclaim
Actual Spend
Optimal Spend
Diagnosis
Most efficient channel at 1.34× iROAS — the only channel returning above cost. Smaller spend volumes mean diminishing returns haven't set in. This is where incremental budget should go first when reallocated from wasted Meta/TikTok spend.
Statistical Validation & Confidence Intervals
Model outputs validated against observed revenue at p<0.01 significance — all figures reconciled to Shopify actuals
99.7%
Revenue Reconciliation
Modelled revenue reconciles to within 0.3% of observed Shopify actuals across all 12 periods. Residual <$2,400.
3 Models
Triangulated Model Consensus
Bayesian regression, media mix model, and geo-holdout test independently converge on channel-level incrementality within ±2.1% of each other.
±4.2%
Confidence Interval
95% credible interval on channel-level attribution. At the widest bound, no channel finding reverses direction.
GROWTH SHOP © 2025 · PREDICTIVE INCREMENTALITY ENGINE v2.4.1
Data: Meta Ads, Google Ads, TikTok Ads, Shopify, GA4